Correlation = Causation

Summary:

What if we reversed this? SEEKING GREENLIGHT

Correlation = Causation

Anakes 16 Mar 2020 18:32

In the field of biological sciences, statistical analysis can be used to take observational data of a population and extrapolate it into the future to make predictions on how that system is likely to act. What if we reversed this? SEEKING GREENLIGHT

I moved and trimmed your thread summary, since it was taking up extra space in the main forum screen. Try to keep thread descriptions (the text in the little box under the thread title) short so you don't crowd out other authors in the forum listing. ~Zyn

Seeking Greenlights: Yes

Page Type: SCP Article

Genre (Optional): Math

Page Layout (Optional): No skew

Elevator Pitch: (Expanded from the summary) In the field of biological sciences, statistical analysis can be used to take observational data of a population and extrapolate it into the future to make predictions on how that system is likely to act. This anomaly exists as a biostatistical model and functions in reverse. In short, manipulations to the statistical model and its paired data set are reflected by instantaneous changes in the population it is modeling.

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Central Narrative: I'm thinking something along the lines of a two-part system: the mathematical model/script itself and the man who developed it. The man is entirely unremarkable by himself but every prediction he makes using his statistical model has the unexplained characteristic of instantaneously becoming true and rewriting history to make it appear as if those predictions have always been true. The man is unable to manipulate the outcome and claims he is just practicing 'ethical statistical practices', yet his predictions have been linked to the emergence of several IRL statistical oddities in populations and other living systems.

Hook/Attention-Grabber: This time, Correlation=Causation.

Additional Notes: As I mentioned earlier, this is my first go at an SCP. I'm a current PhD student and I'm really looking forward to being able to write scientifically in a non-work context. I'll take any help I can get, as well as some recommendations for future research.

EDIT: Revamped the concept, laid down a base for the central narrative.

As a courtesy to our readers on mobile devices, please collapse long posts. ~Zyn

Last edited on 17 Mar 2020 04:06 by Zyn Show more

Re: Reality Bending Math

Brewsterion 1017 16 Mar 2020 18:37

I think we have a few other "anomalous statistics/formulas" articles already, as a heads up. That aside, the lack of a central narrative is going to hurt. Most if not all of the "anomalous statistics" pieces on the site use said anomaly as a framing device to tell a story of some sort, even if just through testings logs. Without that, this idea is an empty picture frame: as neat and clean as it might look, it's just not interesting without something in it. It simply doesn't work on its own, without a narrative.

Re: Reality Bending Math

Anakes 16 Mar 2020 20:42

Thank you for your feedback! I've given it another go and made some conceptual edits to introduce a central narrative.

Re: Correlation = Causation

Popsioak 17 Mar 2020 15:50

Greenlight provided on IRC.

Re: Correlation = Causation

TheMightyMcB 17 Mar 2020 16:24

GREENLIGHT per the following conversation on IRC:

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2020-03-17 12:00:48 TheMightyMcB: so back onto this biostat idea
2020-03-17 12:00:58 TheMightyMcB: how specific is this dude's model
2020-03-17 12:01:40 Jak: I mean, I dunno. Seeing as this is a CO
2020-03-17 12:01:40 Anaktes: Broadly. Think population/community scale instead of individual
2020-03-17 12:01:43 Jak: IC
2020-03-17 12:01:45 Jak: Fuck
2020-03-17 12:01:49 Jak: CI*
2020-03-17 12:02:09 TheMightyMcB: hm alright and would it be applicable to nearly anything?
2020-03-17 12:02:18 TheMightyMcB: because if so, that might cause you some plot holes
2020-03-17 12:02:47 TheMightyMcB: with wacky statistics scps, the more esoteric and weird things that the stats apply to, the more fun they are
2020-03-17 12:03:13 Anaktes: Living systems that a data set can be established for. So > a few thousand individuals
2020-03-17 12:03:31 TheMightyMcB: hm
2020-03-17 12:03:39 TheMightyMcB: so that demographic itself isn't that great of a hook
2020-03-17 12:03:48 TheMightyMcB: how do you plan on drawing interest
2020-03-17 12:04:17 TheMightyMcB: like for example, the best statistical anomaly on the site imo is scp-4006
2020-03-17 12:04:19 TheMightyMcB: scp-4006
2020-03-17 12:04:31 Ethagon: Oh, yes
2020-03-17 12:04:39 TheMightyMcB: literally it is statistically impossible to enter the state of massachusetts
2020-03-17 12:04:43 TheMightyMcB: that's fucking hilarious
2020-03-17 12:06:00 Greyve: heya ppl
2020-03-17 12:06:05 MarcoXXI: Hi
2020-03-17 12:06:11 Anaktes: Was planning on using as a way to 'explain' a few different IRL statistical phenomenon- evolution of flowers, biodiversity of plankton on its broadest scales. Can also apply it to a lot of human-based statistical oddities- voting behaviors and other demographics
2020-03-17 12:06:33 TheMightyMcB: Anaktes: alright so my advice then would be to do one of two things
2020-03-17 12:06:45 TheMightyMcB: either A, you pick one of those things and get hyper specific with it
2020-03-17 12:07:11 TheMightyMcB: or B, you start really esoteric and weird, and then expand it to include things that the average reader is familiar with to give them an "oh shit" moment
2020-03-17 12:07:21 DatMonkey: I want to run this idea through IRC before I post it, but what if postive emotions were caused by an anomalous parasite/entity instead of negative, like a reverse 5000. It would be a lot more of an ethical dilemma whether or not to remove this from people and good be a good way to explore the ethics commitee
2020-03-17 12:08:10 MarcoXXI: That’d be cool
2020-03-17 12:08:24 Anaktes: Gotchu. Not going to lie, B would be a fun avenue to run
2020-03-17 12:08:45 TheMightyMcB: Anaktes: i'm inclined to agree
2020-03-17 12:08:59 DatMonkey: I agree as well
2020-03-17 12:09:20 DatMonkey: although you might have to pull it off well so the reader doesn’t get bored and leave
2020-03-17 12:09:33 TheMightyMcB: ^ it would need to be fairly concise
2020-03-17 12:09:55 TheMightyMcB: there's a risk with large concepts like this of overstaying your welcome
2020-03-17 12:10:04 Anaktes: Definitely going to try and avoid the 'lost the reader in log 46' syndrome
2020-03-17 12:10:16 TheMightyMcB: Anaktes: i like the idea of following the dude who made this
2020-03-17 12:10:20 DatMonkey: Yea definitely
2020-03-17 12:10:36 TheMightyMcB: but, i don't think he should be the guy who made it necessarily
2020-03-17 12:10:46 TheMightyMcB: i think he could be the guy who discovered it perhaps?
2020-03-17 12:10:53 DatMonkey: maybe try something like something small in the middle of all the esoteric stuff just to make the reader say huh and keep reading then hit em with the oh shit
2020-03-17 12:10:59 TheMightyMcB: a civilian scientist who discovered this wild statistical anomaly
2020-03-17 12:11:07 TheMightyMcB: and the reader follows this guy down the rabbit hole
2020-03-17 12:11:16 TheMightyMcB: and you end it with the ultimate fate of this scientist
2020-03-17 12:11:33 Jak: Ethagon: I can genuinely tell you that I had no idea what was happening throughout the entirety of that document. I also just woke up, so my reading is wack at the moment
2020-03-17 12:11:54 Ethagon: Hmm
2020-03-17 12:11:58 Anaktes: The dude wasn't in the original cut. Added in him because the idea of a dude who doesn't really know what he's doing but is somehow always right seemed fun to play with
2020-03-17 12:12:23 TheMightyMcB: Anaktes: that's certainly another angle you can take with the character
2020-03-17 12:12:45 Anaktes: Civilian scientist and 'it just works (tm)'
2020-03-17 12:12:52 Jak: Ethagon: I should probably read this again once I stop feeling like I got hit with a semi
2020-03-17 12:13:02 TheMightyMcB: really, your options here are to either document foundation research into the thing or to document this guy's experience with it
2020-03-17 12:13:20 TheMightyMcB: if you're confident in your ability to do that second one, i think you could make something cool
2020-03-17 12:13:31 Ethagon: Jak: Alright, then thank you for now!
2020-03-17 12:13:32 Anaktes: I'd like to do the second one. If we're going to do it, might as well go all in
2020-03-17 12:13:41 TheMightyMcB: but being a grad student and all, you could probably also pull off the first tbh
2020-03-17 12:14:03 TheMightyMcB: its amazing what you can do to keep clinical writing interesting by just playing with the information you give your readers
2020-03-17 12:14:28 TheMightyMcB: people love to figure things out on their own
2020-03-17 12:14:30 Jak: Yeah, no problem.
2020-03-17 12:14:58 TheMightyMcB: anything that makes the reader feel as smart as the foundation for solving the mystery is bound to do well here
2020-03-17 12:15:37 TheMightyMcB: Anaktes: this 100% gets my greenlight, i have full confidence in your ability to do this
2020-03-17 12:15:54 TheMightyMcB: also i'd like to see drafts when you've got em
2020-03-17 12:16:19 Anaktes: Thank you! Definitely wanting to shoot with one of those approaches that leaves the reader open and then closes the narrative as you progress through the addendums.
2020-03-17 12:16:34 TheMightyMcB: awesome
2020-03-17 12:16:45 TheMightyMcB: its a tight rope to walk but man is it satisfying to nail it
2020-03-17 12:17:05 TheMightyMcB: ill add these irc logs to your thread so you have them saved forever and i'll note my greenlight
2020-03-17 12:17:33 Anaktes: We're gonna try. Might take a try or two but we'll get there. Going to pop up later this week with a draft if all goes well.
2020-03-17 12:17:38 Anaktes: Thanks again!
2020-03-17 12:17:46 TheMightyMcB: dope dude, hmu when you've got something
2020-03-17 12:18:18 Anaktes: Will do

Last edited on 17 Mar 2020 16:26 by TheMightyMcB Show more